NEW DELHI - One year after the Indian Armed Forces launched Operation Sindoor in retaliation for the Pahalgam terror attack, military analysts remain divided on the operation's long-term strategic outcomes, even as both India and Pakistan claim victory in the four-day conflict that brought two nuclear-armed nations to the brink .
Operation Sindoor was launched on the night of May 6-7, 2025, following the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack that killed 26 civilians in Indian Illegally Occupied Jammu and Kashmir . The operation marked India's largest cross-border military action since the 1971 war, targeting what India described as terror infrastructure in both Pakistan-occupied Kashmir and mainland Pakistan .
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The Case for Indian Success
Indian military officials and several international analysts have characterized Operation Sindoor as a "clear-cut victory" for India . Austrian aerial warfare analyst Tom Cooper told ANI that "India conducted highly successful retaliation strikes on major terror camps inside Pakistan, and also hit targets that were widely considered untouchable-well beyond India's supposed reach" .
Former Indian Air Force vice chief Air Marshal Narmdeshwar Tiwari (retd) emphasized the speed and precision of the operation. "We acted fast and practically got inside their decision-making cycle during the operation. The adversary was surprised by our speed, reach and clarity of objectives," he told Hindustan Times .
According to official Indian accounts, the operation involved precision strikes on nine terror camps in PoJK and Pakistan proper, followed by counter-strikes against 11 Pakistani airbases after Pakistan launched its retaliatory "Operation Bunyan-um-Marsoos" on May 10 . Indian air defense systems reportedly intercepted over 95% of incoming Pakistani projectiles .
The Depth Illusion Shattered
Ankit Kumar, Assistant Professor at SICSSL, writing in Khaama Press, argued that Operation Sindoor achieved what he called the "shattering of the depth illusion" - the Pakistani assumption that facilities located far from the border were safe from Indian retaliation .
"By striking Bahawalpur in southern Punjab and Muridke in the Punjabi heartland in the first wave, India dismantled that assumption," Kumar wrote, noting that this was "the most expansive Indian military operation since 1971" . The strikes targeted Markaz Taiba in Muridke and Jamia Masjid Subhan Allah in Bahawalpur, described as key Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammed facilities .
Major General Ravi Murugan (retd) wrote in The New Indian Express that the operation "translated stated policy into decisive action" and represented "a shift from declaratory posture to demonstrable resolve" .
Questioning the Narrative
However, Pakistani officials and aligned analysts have sharply questioned the Indian narrative. The Foreign Office of Pakistan issued a statement rejecting what it called "baseless assertions and provocative claims" regarding the so-called "Operation Sindoor" .
Writing in The Express Tribune, analyst Durdana Najam argued that reports of Indian success "collapse under scrutiny," pointing to what she describes as a lack of verifiable evidence for key Indian claims . "Indian claims of destroying Pakistani air assets are accepted without a single photograph, video or wreckage fragment," she wrote .
Najam also questioned the plausibility of Indian claims regarding the downing of a Pakistani Erieye AEW&C aircraft deep inside Pakistani territory, describing such an engagement as requiring "extraordinary targeting data, sustained radar illumination deep inside hostile airspace and a complete absence of Pakistani countermeasures" .
Pakistan has also continued to commemorate its own version of events. Defence Minister Khawaja Asif and Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar participated in events marking the anniversary, portraying Pakistan as having emerged stronger from the episode .
Military Lessons Drawn
Despite the narrative divide, Indian military planners have drawn concrete lessons from the operation. In a notable statement, Air Commodore Gaurav M Tripathi (retd) revealed that India employed its S-400 air defense systems "very offensively" during the conflict .
"We used them very offensively; we moved them around very frequently. We camouflaged them as well and used their decoy forms to deceive the adversary. This technique in military parlance is called camouflage, concealment and deception or CCD," Tripathi told PTI .
Military experts have also highlighted the growing importance of drone warfare and cyber capabilities. The former air officer warned that "the enemy is smart. Next time, what they will send will be hardened drones, which will probably be more difficult to jam" .
Red Lines Redrawn
Lt Gen Dushyant Singh (retd), Director General of the Centre for Land Warfare Studies, argued that Operation Sindoor has demonstrated that "red lines have been pushed further" when it comes to India's counter-terrorism stance, and that New Delhi is now ready to "call the nuclear bluff of the adversary" .
"One of the major military lessons from Op Sindoor is that we moved from strategic restraint to strategic proactiveness. We have to be prepared to respond in a very, very quick time, in case something like that happens next time," he said .
The Water Dimension
One year on, the conflict's legacy extends beyond military outcomes. The Indus Waters Treaty remains in abeyance, giving India full control over western rivers like the Jhelum and Chenab . Pakistan's Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar recently warned that any attempt to block or divert water allocated to Pakistan under the treaty would be considered an "act of war" .
Uncertain Legacy
As the first anniversary passes, the operation's outcomes remain contested: India points to what it calls a new normal in cross-border retaliation, while Pakistan insists its deterrence held and questions the verifiability of Indian claims .
What is undisputed is that the 88-hour conflict tested the limits of nuclear deterrence in South Asia and demonstrated that both nations remain prepared to escalate rapidly in response to perceived threats .
"Op Sindoor was a watershed moment for India and the subcontinent in the way it established a military threshold, and the asymmetry between India and Pakistan," said Dinakar Peri, Fellow at Carnegie India . But he added a cautionary note: "The next conflict or Op Sindoor 2.0 will not be like the last one" .
