UNITED NATIONS/WASHINGTON D.C. - Maritime traffic through the strategic Strait of Hormuz has plummeted by over 95% since the outbreak of hostilities between the United States, Israel, and Iran on February 28, United Nations officials confirmed this week, as a double blockade by both sides continues to choke off approximately 20% of the world's oil and liquefied natural gas supplies .
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The dramatic reduction in vessel movements has sent global energy prices soaring, with Brent crude surging 53% and international food commodity costs climbing 6%, creating inflationary pressures across Europe and beyond . UN Secretary-General António Guterres warned that "the longer this vital artery is choked, the harder it will be to reverse the damage," projecting that even under a best-case scenario where restrictions are lifted today, global economic growth would still drop from 3.4% to 3.1% this year .
Iran's New Proposal and US Rejection
On April 27, Iran submitted a new proposal to the United States via Pakistani mediators, offering to reopen the Strait of Hormuz on the condition that Washington lifts its naval blockade on Iranian ports and agrees to end the war . The proposal, however, postpones discussion of Iran's nuclear program - the most contentious issue between the two adversaries - for future rounds of negotiation .
The Trump administration has signaled rejection of the proposal in its current form. According to Reuters and CNN reports, President Trump was "unhappy" with the offer because it did not include provisions for Iran's nuclear program, and officials fear that lifting the blockade without resolving nuclear questions "could remove a key piece of American leverage in the talks" . Secretary of State Marco Rubio described the proposal as "better than what we thought they were going to submit" but questioned Tehran's intentions, stating that any agreement must "definitively prevent them from sprinting towards a nuclear weapon at any point" .
Iranian analyst Abas Aslani told Al Jazeera that Tehran believes its previous model - compromising on its nuclear program in exchange for sanctions relief - is no longer a "viable path towards a potential accord" .
Project Freedom: US Military Escort Mission
On May 3, President Trump announced "Project Freedom," a US-led military operation to guide stranded commercial ships through the southern route of the Strait of Hormuz . The operation involves guided-missile destroyers, over 100 land and sea-based aircraft, multi-domain unmanned platforms, and 15,000 service members .
US Central Command confirmed on Monday that two American-flagged merchant vessels have successfully transited the strait as part of the initiative - the first such passage since Iran effectively halted commercial traffic on April 18 . "American forces are actively assisting efforts to restore transit for commercial shipping," CENTCOM wrote on X .
Iran's Warnings and New Maritime Rules
Tehran has responded with fierce warnings. Major General Ali Abdollahi, commander of the Khatam al-Anbiya Central Headquarters, stated: "We warn that any foreign armed force - especially the aggressive US military - if they intend to approach or enter the Strait of Hormuz, will be targeted and attacked" . A senior Revolutionary Guards official added that any US attack, "even if limited, would trigger long and painful strikes" on American positions across the region .
Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei has issued a directive for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Navy to exercise control over nearly 2,000 kilometers of Iran's coastline in the Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz under "new rules," describing the waters as both a "source of livelihood and strength" for Iranians . Khamenei declared in a written message that "foreigners who come from thousands of kilometres away ... have no place there except at the bottom of its waters" .
The Double Blockade
The current stalemate is unique in that both sides have imposed restrictions:
Iran has effectively closed the strait to most commercial shipping, offering safe passage only to vessels from countries with neutral or friendly diplomatic ties, sometimes charging "tolls" or fees .
The United States has enforced a naval blockade on Iranian ports since April 13, targeting Iranian maritime traffic and warning shippers that paying Iran's tolls will subject them to sanctions . The Pentagon estimates the blockade has cost Iran $4.8 billion in lost oil revenue .
Over the last 20 days, 48 vessels have been redirected to ensure compliance with the US blockade .
False Claims and Heightened Risks
On May 3, Iranian state media claimed that Iran had hit a US warship with two missiles near Jask island after it ignored Iranian warnings . US Central Command denied the claim, stating that "no US Navy ships have been struck" . However, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations agency reported that a tanker had been hit by unknown projectiles 78 nautical miles north of Fujairah, in the United Arab Emirates, with all crew reported safe .
The United Arab Emirates also reported that Iran fired two drones at a tanker affiliated with its state oil company ADNOC in the strait .
Economic and Humanitarian Fallout
The UN has warned that prolonged disruption could push tens of millions more people into poverty and extreme hunger . Guterres outlined three scenarios:
Best case (restrictions lifted today): Global growth drops to 3.1%; inflation rises to 4.4%; trade growth shrinks to roughly 2%.
Prolonged conflict: 45 million more people face extreme hunger; hard-won development gains are reversed.
Global recession: Consequences become exponential .
French President Emmanuel Macron said on Monday that the only way to reopen the strait was "a coordinated reopening by the United States and Iran" - a sentiment echoed by analysts who note that both sides view time as an ally, but neither can afford an indefinite stalemate .
The Maritime Freedom Construct
Washington is seeking to build a multinational framework, known as the Maritime Freedom Construct (MFC), to coordinate safe passage through the strait by sharing intelligence, providing routing guidance, and aligning diplomatic and military efforts . France, the United Kingdom, and other countries have held talks on contributing but have said they are willing to help open the strait only when the conflict ends .
Outlook
With the ceasefire extended unilaterally by Trump at Pakistan's request but no new timeline set, and both sides maintaining their rival blockades, the Strait of Hormuz remains a powder keg . Iran insists that any passage must be coordinated with its armed forces; the US is now enforcing military escorts. The coming weeks will determine whether diplomacy can break the deadlock - or whether Project Freedom and Iran's warnings lead to a direct military confrontation in one of the world's most vital waterways .
